Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That represents the warning from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Stir Debate
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any governmental shift in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have remained undefined because then you land with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is approaching, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, assembling economic and societal figures, previous instances and structural examples.
Debates cover identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they favour unification but oppose paying higher taxes or adopting a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government must establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent government minister who states: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
