Conflict-ravaged Myanmar Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Myanmar is going to the polls in a electoral process broadly rejected as a farce, with major political parties banned, numerous figures jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing civil war.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited widespread opposition and spiralled into a civil war.

Analysts note the military regime, with China's support, is attempting to validate and consolidate its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of freedom of expression, association or peaceful protest," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been charged for disrupting or criticising the election under a recently enacted legislation which carries harsh penalties, including the possibility of execution.

Director Mike Tee, performer Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals convicted under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a prison sentence of seven years after speaking out against a promotional video endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a statement, pointing out that armed rebel groups have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on multiple battlefields, against both armed resistance groups who oppose the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It ceded territory of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but regained territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three phases over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Outcomes are expected by late January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will go to the polls, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the junta-supported Union Solidarity and Development Party, are fielding candidates nationwide, while dozens more parties and independent candidates will contest only at the state or regional levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which scored landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been banned. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been imprisoned under charges widely condemned as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into phases, the junta can adjust tactics if the results in the first phase do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Nations in the West, including the UK and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a sham, while neighbouring group Asean has called for political dialogue to precede any election.

The Myanmar regime has rejected criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of Myanmar. It is not intended for the outside world," a military representative stated at a briefing last week.

Junta chief Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who refuse to vote are turning their back on "progress toward democracy".