Day-to-Day Homicides in the nation Drop Thirty-Seven Percent Under Claudia Sheinbaum, As per Official Statistics

The mean number of per-day killings each month in Mexico has decreased by more than a third since Head of State Claudia Sheinbaum assumed power, according to new government figures. Nevertheless, security specialists have warned that murder data might not point to enhanced national stability.

Significant Drop in Per-Day Averages

There was an mean of almost 55 homicides a day in November compared with nearly 87 when the President began the presidency in the previous September. This data was shared by the director of the nation's federal safety agency, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the president’s regular news conference on Tuesday.

“The outcome in homicides that we have seen in these past months is remarkably important,” Sheinbaum remarked, adding that the previous month the lowest figure of homicides were recorded for any November in the past decade.

Historical Background and Government Plan

Fierce organized crime infighting, coupled with the administration's heavily militarised campaigns to combat the drug gangs, have made Mexico’s murder numbers escalate in the past few years. The figure hit a record high of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's official data agency.

That resulted in Mexico a homicide figure more than four times higher than the US. From that point, killings have been on the decrease, dropping to 33,550 in the last calendar year. The President has credited her public safety approach for an seemingly sharper decline in killings in the current year.

At a news briefing in the summer, the head of state stated: “There is a strategy, there is oversight of the strategy, and we have detailed tracking town by town in certain cases. The plan functions. And we have to continue working at it each day.”

The key pillars of the President's security strategy involve:

• Reinforcing Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving intelligence and investigative capabilities.
• Increased coordination between government departments.

Analyst Caution and Statistical Concerns

But, security experts warned that relying on murder statistics to paint a picture of pacification was problematic. This is notably true considering the increase in different criminal activities such as abductions.

“That would be excellent news if this was a reduction, but I think we must not just focus on the homicide numbers and conclude: ‘Well then, excellent,’” stated Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's cartels. “I would be tentatively optimistic.”

As reported by the policy analysis organization Mexico Evalúa, killings in total fell by over 20% in the first 10 months of this year versus the identical period the previous year. However, disappearances have increased by 15% and in some states have risen by up to 200%.

“Statistics on homicides is no longer valid for gauging the context of violence,” stated Armando Vargas, a safety analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have law enforcement and investigators who lack the ability or the inclination to properly recognize and classify bodies. Secondly, organised [criminals] … have the ability to hide violent acts through disappearances.”

Vargas noted that using month-to-month averages of daily killings was similarly an issue because it could obscure days when there were especially high levels of murders.

“Relying on the daily average makes surges of violence unseen,” he concluded.

Arrests and Seizures as Measures of Success

An area where the government can point to the effectiveness of its security plan is on arrests and seizures. Nearly 40,000 people were arrested between last October and November 2025 for serious offenses, per government figures. Over 20,000 firearms were confiscated and 311 tons of drugs intercepted.

“Trump cannot accuse President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is doing a lot with these thousands of detentions, thousands of confiscations, and all the tactical degrading of organised crime. It’s extremely in political terms profitable,” commented Vargas.

Ongoing Violence and Societal Anger

However notwithstanding these efforts, Mexico is still plagued by severe violence, with multiple regions in the throes of cartel-related conflict. In the previous month there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, one of 10 local leaders killed in the past year.

A short time after, many thousands of youth protested in Mexico City and throughout the nation to show their frustration at graft and narco-violence.

“The administration presents [data] in a manner to construct a story of security. From a political standpoint it’s extremely successful, socially it’s extremely problematic,” Vargas concluded.