Volodymyr Zelenskyy, while leading his nation amidst a war, is simultaneously chasing a vision for peacetime: achieving European Union membership for his country promptly.
Ukraine's tireless leader is increasing pressure on European Union governments to accelerate the typically slow membership procedure. He portrays the collective sacrifice of Ukrainians as a fight "to secure the nation's destiny, the future of Ukraine within the European Union."
This dream of tens of millions of citizens gaining European status is, theoretically, shared by the union itself. Nowadays, hardly any meeting in Brussels ends without Ukraine's inclusion being referred to as a "geopolitical necessity."
This language portrays Ukraine's survival and Europe's long-term security as two sides of the same coin. Yet, for years following the year 2004 "enlargement" that welcomed ten ex- Soviet countries, there was no desire for new members, especially not Ukraine. Putin's military invasion altered the situation entirely – within months of the illegal 2022 invasion, Ukraine had applied for, and received, "official candidate" status. A later, EU leaders took the historic decision to open membership talks with a nation at war, although with no a specific deadline. Adjacent the Republic of Moldova, the ex-USSR state feared to be next in the Kremlin's sights, vaulted to the front of the line together with Ukraine.
Recently, the European Commission released its formal assessment of the progress of 10 aspiring countries, and ranked both nations among the four leading candidates, together with two Balkan states. The EU foreign policy chief said it was a realistic target that these four might each be in the EU by 2030.
Ukraine's positive verdict is undeniably impressive. Enemy airstrikes are devastating its power infrastructure nightly, its treasury is almost empty and many millions of its citizens are displaced, metaphorically residing elsewhere of Europe. Its diplomats are frequently literally in shelters. However, in Brussels, officials are upbeat about the massive reform push being implemented in the capital despite continued worries about corruption. Information of an alleged scandal at the nation's state energy operator are still emerging. Even so, they say, accession talks could be complete by the end of 2028. Talks with tiny Montenegro and Albania could be concluded by 2026 and 2027, respectively.
A Reality Check
However, there exists a sobering reality gap: the EU executive cannot decide who gets in. The 27 existing member states do, and they must vote unanimously through each phase. Furthermore, at least for now, the EU's notorious leader Viktor Orbán is obstructing the formal opening of talks with Ukraine. And because its neighbor is grouped with the larger nation, it too is stuck.
All eyes are on the polls in the central European country in April, could unseat the long-serving leader. Yet other member states with domestic political concerns may be hiding using Hungary. With far-right parties gaining strength in major European nations and currently in government in other countries, the overall environment for Ukraine's accession is challenging.
Analysts note a discrepancy between rhetorical support and real intentions. "I doubt that a lot of nations in the EU truly desire Ukraine to be a member state, for various causes," says one expert of the process. "And it is a tragedy: because the EU would win the lottery by bringing in this nation."
What Are the Roadblocks?
The strategic case for accepting Ukraine may be even more pressing in light of the Kremlin's "hybrid war" on Europe, but given its size and complexity, so are the diplomatic and budgetary obstacles. Even when the talks are finished, ratification by all the 27 member states – some require referendums – is formally required for every new member. Although popular approval for the nation's admission is certainly high in Nordic states, 41% across the EU reject it.
Radical right parties are increasing their influence and many of them are vehemently anti-European and anti-enlargement. With the French far-right leader's nationalist party potentially aiming for power in the French Republic in 2027, a referendum in France on Ukraine's accession would be a difficult battle. Even among pro-enlargement states, there is trepidation about the costs at stake, given Ukraine's economic challenges and immense rebuilding needs. A bitter debate over whether to seize €140bn of frozen Moscow's funds to bail out the nation before it exhausts its funds in the spring is still simmering. Three central European nations, in contrast, fear that their farming sectors will suffer if the large agricultural producer, a major farming country and competitor, gains eligibility for farm support payments.
Enlargement more broadly, it is feared, could destabilise rather than consolidating the Union, until institutional reforms are first implemented to prevent gridlock in a club of 30-something nations. However such reform could take years.
Winning Support and Trojan Horses
Representatives in Brussels may have innovative workarounds to Orbán's veto such as "front-loading", where discussions could start unofficially until Hungary's opposition is lifted.
Discussions are underway, also, of including strict new legal guarantees and long probationary phases into new accession agreements to appease doubters. Nobody wants new member states that on paper appear to uphold the democratic norms, but who turn out to be "internal threats" to the union.
PR campaigns and "messaging" to win the hearts and minds of citizens in all the current countries and the candidate states are in development. It is evident, however, that raising hopes and then stranding many people in limbo indefinitely carries dangers. As the Moldova's leader, Maia Sandu, who in September overcame Kremlin interference to achieve a impressive pro-European election victory, cautions last week: "If we fail to succeed in the next three years … then what's be the message to the citizens?"
Zelenskyy gave an exclusive discussion to stress the risks of Moscow initiating conflict against another EU country before the Ukraine war ends. He further emphasized Ukraine's resilience at a critical juncture, and his love for his compatriots. "I think that
